Written By Jack J Collins, Editor of AllAboutLaw.co.uk

Giving constitutional reform the boot

Written By Jack J Collins, Editor of AllAboutLaw.co.uk

Early in December, Italian prime minister Matteo Renzi held a referendum about constitutional reform which saw him dealt a crushing loss – a loss which spelled his resignation from power once the result was announced. Jack J Collins investigates.

Italy went to the polls on Sunday 4 December 2016 to decide whether to accept a constitutional amendment which would have reformed the makeup and the powers of the Italian Parliament, as well as the way in which power is distributed between the central powers and their regional and administrative counterparts. It was seen as a defining issue of the Matteo Renzi campaign, and following a decisive rejection of his proposed reform, the Italian prime minister promptly resigned.

As one might expect, political analysts have suggested that the widespread opposition to the proposals was based amongst the same sentiments that secured victory for the Brexit campaign in the United Kingdom – dissent towards the establishment, migration and open borders, scepticism towards the idea of Europe as a whole, and localised anger at the effects of globalisation.

What’s perhaps more interesting, however, is how the demographics of the voting public were different in the two cases – namely, in Italy, it was a youth movement which decisively voted against the government’s initiative. In fact, 81% of voters aged between 18 and 35 rejected the reform, indicating that those to whom the government had addressed most of their rhetoric over the course of the campaign had solemnly rejected the offer they had been given.

Is this a vote against Renzi?

It certainly seems that there’s been a bit of personal vendetta against the former prime minister. When he took power in 2014, he was nicknamed the “demolition man” on account of his anti-establishment, stick-it-to-the-man style, but his popularity has been severely on the wane over recent months.

Many felt that his style bordered on arrogance, and his apparent ability to rub people up the wrong way invaded even his own party, where he managed to offend entire sections. Ultimately, many Italians see Renzi’s premiership as a failed one – he is accused of being in cahoots with Brussels and the banking sector, whilst failing to get Europe to help Italy with their migration crisis, being unable to reboot the failing economy, or tackle the unemployment rate.

Antonio Noto, head of the polling institution IPR Marketing, stated that “Renzi is strongly disliked”, and added that votes against the reforms were not only “votes against the establishment, but also against his style".

The Italian economy

There are a number of economic motives that have influenced the nature of this referendum as well. The Italian economy has stagnated since 2000, and despite Renzi’s promises, he has not managed to give it the kickstart that it so desperately needed. The unemployment rate has oscillated between 11.4% and 11.7% for the previous 15 months, and even the slight reduction achieved in the youth unemployment rate, which stands at 36.4% (the lowest it’s been since October 2012), has failed to pacify the disenfranchised masses.

The editor of La Stampa, Maurizio Moliniari, wrote: "Those who voted 'No' were impoverished middle-class families, hit by the economic crisis, without hope of prosperity or well-being for children or grandchildren, and the unemployed young."

Italy’s prime areas of unemployment were amongst the most heavily swayed against Renzi, where 65.8% of people voted against the reforms, and in the impoverished southern regions of the country, the No vote also gained lots of traction.

What does it mean?

By attempting to centralise government and move powers around within the framework of the Italian political sphere, Renzi managed to create an atmosphere of hostility and confusion amongst many of the general populace who did not understand why the changes had been proposed in the first place.

And amongst those who were in the know, there was a worry that Renzi’s changes were bad for Italian democracy, since they were changing the way that executive power was balanced and handled – there were suggestions that it would have removed the checks on the powers of central government.

Massimo Franco, who is a columnist for the popular Corriere della Sera newspaper, claimed: "Labelling this a populist victory against the establishment would be reductive... There is a populist imprint but a mix of factors played their parts, from hostility to Renzi to a desire to defend the constitution."

What next?

Paolo Gentiloni, who had been foreign minister under Renzi, has taken the reigns as prime minister for the time being, and he has the advantage of a majority in the Italian Parliament to work on some of the most urgent pressing matters. The electoral laws, which are currently deemed unconstitutional, and the weak banking sector, are both in need of immediate upheaval.

Whilst some have pointed to the result as a victory for the liberal populism of the eurosceptic Five Star Movement, the centre-right Forza Italia (with Silvio Berlusconi as their president), have also claimed a win as the result has ousted Renzi. Furthermore, it has been suggested that the electoral changes proposed in the changes would actually have helped the Five Star Movement gain a foothold in parliament, so Forza Italia will feel that the result has also halted the possibility of the populist group gaining traction in a localised sense.

In terms of what it means for Europe and the EU, no-one is willing to determine this one way or the other. Whilst a defeat for Renzi has been called an anti-EU vote due to the former Prime Minister’s ties to Brussels and his strong pro-EU sentiment, it has been pointed out that many of the groups who campaigned for the ‘No’ vote are also pre-Europe.

That said, there are still many anti-establishment messages coming through loud and clear in the result of the referendum, and it may act as a warning siren to the EU, especially in the wake of Brexit. The general population wants Europe to pay more attention to the financial and social issues which are prevalent in Italy, and the referendum indicates that things are not settled within the third-largest EU nation, which has been hit hard by recent economic and migrant crises.

Blog