There’s A Conservative Majority Government… What’s Next?

May 11, 2015

Written By Billy Sexton, Editor, AllAboutLaw.co.uk

Despite the very best of us thinking that the prospect of a second general election was a question worth addressing prior to last Thursday, the Conservative Party proved pollsters wrong by securing a 12 seat majority.

Though it’s unlikely that senior Tory party members will ever admit that the majority result was a surprise, it’s reasonable to assume that they were expecting to govern as a minority or as the big brother of another coalition. Now, with a majority, the Tories have a mandate to carry out their manifesto promises. But what’s immediately in store for the UK?

The Human Rights Act Will Be Scrapped

The Conservatives outlined in their manifesto that they would immediately scrap the Human Rights Act (HRA), which enshrines the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) into UK law. The Conservatives believe that the HRA undermines the Supreme Court, and outlined that Section 2 of the Act forces the UK courts to take into account the rulings of the Strasbourg Court when interpreting convention rights. The Conservatives argue that, “This means problematic Strasbourg jurisprudence is often being applied in UK law.”

The Conservatives, therefore, will press ahead with their plan to introduce a British Bill of Rights and Responsibilities which will keep the text of the original Human Rights Convention in new legislation. By doing this, the Conservatives argue that they’re protecting human rights whilst also ensuring that The European Court of Human Rights is an advisory body only. Indeed, Germany don’t have a requirement in place whereby the Strasbourg Court creates legal precedent.

A ‘Ban’ On Tax Rises

Chancellor George Osbourne will effectively put a ban on himself raising taxes, national insurance or VAT throughout the course of the next Parliament. There are worries that this will tie Osbourne’s hands in the event of an economic shock, but it confirms the Tories’ plan to reduce the deficit through cuts rather than raising taxes. But these cuts are set to be brutal, especially with the reduction in inheritance tax and the promise to spend £8bn more than inflation on health and the NHS.

An EU Referendum?

Not yet. However, the Conservative majority will have no choice but to put in place a plan for a referendum to take place by 2017. They promised to “legislate in the first session of the next Parliament for an in-out referendum to be held on Britain’s membership of the EU before the end of 2017.”

What About A Budget?

Can’t wait to get your next fix of dearest George holding a red briefcase? Although Eric Pickles told the BBC to “anticipate a Budget relatively soon”, the Financial Times reports that Osbourne has two options. One would be to follow suit to 2010 and present an early limited Budget statement, setting out the total cuts to be made and outline departmental spending over the next few years. Alternatively, there could be a summer spending review with a full report in the autumn.

And Scotland?

The SNP won 56 of 59 seats in Scotland and intend to put pressure on Cameron to honour commitments made during the Scottish Independence Referendum. The Conservative manifesto outlines how there will be a Scotland bill in the first session of a new Parliament and how the government will implement the recommendations of the Smith Commission so that 50% of the Scottish Parliament’s budget will be funded from revenues raised in Scotland. There will also be further tax and spending devolution.

Of course, we can’t always count on politicians to stick to their manifesto promises, but it’s highly likely that Cameron and the Conservatives will stick to their word on issues such as the EU and Scotland.

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